by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2026 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750,…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 07:48:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 A ET, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September. • Also…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 12:37:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995. It will be close! Even if sales beat 2024 sales, these will be the…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 10:12:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% December 2025 ISM® Services PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 10:00:00 AM From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations,…
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4% “Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. emphasis added This was below the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an…
by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 08:04:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for…
by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 01:21:00 PM The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales…
Silver is a better long-term investment than gold after 2025 only when industrial demand growth outpaces monetary risk demand. Gold remains the stronger long-term asset for wealth preservation, crisis protection, and monetary hedging. Key Takeaways Silver outperforms gold during industrial expansion cycles and supply deficits. Gold outperforms silver during recessions, crises, and monetary tightening. Silver…