by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 10:54:00 AM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand. Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.” Click on graph for larger image. Heavy…
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2026 07:53:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Holding at 2-Month Low Excerpt: Bottom line: at current levels, any day that rates spend holding steady or moving microscopically lower will technically result in the lowest rates since October 28th. It would take a more noticeable improvement to break…
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2026 02:51:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A brief excerpt: Three years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs….
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2026 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 47.9% in December, down from 48.2% in November. The employment index was at 44.9%, up from 44.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.7%, up from 47.4%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2026 06:13:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026 Monday:• Early, Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). • At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2026 08:12:00 AM Here is another update on lumber prices. NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October • FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November • Inflation Adjusted House Prices…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2026 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are the December employment report and Housing Starts for September and October. Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit, November Job Openings, December ISM Manufacturing and December Vehicle Sales. —– Monday, January 5th —– Early: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus…
by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2026 11:12:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has almost 20 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! In the October Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was…
by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2026 08:11:00 AM Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on…