by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 01:41:00 PM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 27 September Impacted by the Rosh Hashanah holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative…
by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 10:57:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! In the July Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was…
by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 08:11:00 AM Note: Heavy truck sales will not be available from the BEA during the shutdown. Omida reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.4 million in September on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was up 2% from the sales rate in August, and up 4% from…
by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 07:31:00 PM NOTE: Unemployment claims will not be released with the government shutdown. Also, I use the BEA for vehicle sales data and that will not be released. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report…
by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 11:59:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.10% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in August. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National…
by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.1% in September, up from 48.7% in August. The employment index was at 45.3%, up from 43.8% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.9%, down from 51.4%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 08:15:00 AM From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 4.5% “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been…
by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 07:51:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls…
by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 02:20:00 PM Another update … a few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales…