by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 03:47:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. In recent months the U.S. economy has defied easy characterization, caught between signals of underlying strength and uncertainty regarding the road ahead. Rail freight volumes have followed that lead, reflecting a mix…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 02:07:00 PM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, up from 49.9% last month. The employment index decreased to 47.2%, from 50.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50.8% June 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business®…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 11:39:00 AM The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.5 billion in May, up $11.3 billion from $60.3 billion in April, revised. May exports were $279.0 billion,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 11:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,500,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 09:13:00 AM The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined. The participation rate decreased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1%. NOTE: State and local government education hiring…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs.…The change in…
by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2025 08:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for June. The consensus is for 129,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment…
by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2025 03:45:00 PM On Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus is for 129,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 139,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs:…
by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2025 12:32:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. More recently, immigration…
by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2025 09:44:00 AM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the June 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 435 thousand. Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.” Click on graph for larger image. Heavy…