by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2025 08:31:00 AM Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (currently 1st and 6th on the “Single Most Important Problem” list). During a recession, “poor sales” is usually the top problem and recently “inflation” was number 1. From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): June 2025 Report:…
by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2025 07:48:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Continue Higher For Third Straight Day For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates. During that time, rates were either lower or unchanged every single day….
by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2025 02:38:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long…
by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2025 10:57:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is…
by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2025 06:17:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 6, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 22 and DOW futures are down 112 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $66.50 per…
by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2025 09:52:00 AM The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through June 2025. Note: This is an update to a post from several years ago. Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May • Asking Rents Mostly…
by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2025 08:11:00 AM This will be a very light week for economic data. —– Monday, July 7th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, July 8th —– 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June. —– Wednesday, July 9th —– 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)…
by Calculated Risk on 7/04/2025 08:21:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 28 June. … 22-28 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 71.9% (-0.1%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.30 (0.0%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$117.45 (-0.1%) emphasis added The…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 07:49:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP. From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we have lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales…