We expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 50bp to 2.5% at its October meeting. An easing bias will likely be maintained that’s dependent on data to come. Signs of greater than expected excess capacity will be highlighted and the prospect of subdued medium-term inflation pressures will motivate the MPC’s decision. The arguments for…
Markets UK Chancellor Reeves addressed the Labour Party conference in Liverpool against the backdrop of crashing polling rates and the looming November 26 Autumn Budget event. Yougov projected last Friday that Labour would only gain 144 seats in the 650-seat parliament compared with their 411 election victory. Reeves warned that harsh global headwinds will force…
Currency markets closed last week with a shift in tone, as traders suddenly found themselves recalibrating on Fed’s easing path once again. The resilience of the US economy surprised many. Growth, hiring, and investment all showed more strength than anticipated, fueling doubts about whether policymakers truly need to accelerate the pace of cuts. The question…
The Kiwi’s slide has been one that hasn’t been seen in a while, with NZDUSD dropping 2% in just two sessions. The pair had initially climbed ahead of the FOMC, driven by dovish concerns around the Fed and sudden Dollar-hedging that briefly pressured the DXY (sending the US Dollar down, hence the pair shooting upwards)….
We expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 25bp to 3%. We don’t expect a significant change in the RBNZ’s OCR profile, which is still likely to indicate a chance of a further cut in November. Beyond this meeting a data-dependent easing bias seems likely. A higher bar seems likely for an easing in…
Chinese stocks are set to hit their highest level in three years as investors hope for new steps to fight deflation and boost the economy. Meanwhile, copper prices dropped in London after President Donald Trump issued a new tariff warning. Asian Market Wrap The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rose 0.4%, reaching its highest level…
July 9 tariff deadline looms as trade deals remain elusive. Fed minutes to be watched after positive jobs report. RBA expected to cut but RBNZ to likely stay on hold. OPEC+ to probably raise output again. UK GDP, Canadian employment and Chinese CPI data also on tap. The race to the finish line It’s been…
We expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 25bp to 3.25%. We see the RBNZ’s OCR profile being revised down by around 20bp to around 2.9% by the end of 2025. Beyond this meeting a data dependent easing bias seems likely. The RBNZ may be open to a pause in July depending on events….
New Zealand’s services sector showed further signs of strain in April, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index dipping from 48.9 to 48.5, well below the long-term average of 53.0. Key components of the survey highlighted persistent weakness: activity/sales was stagnant at 47.3. Employment slipped back into contraction territory at 48.2. New orders showed only…
The New Zealand dollar is down for a second straight day. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5872, down 0.45% on the day. New Zealand inflation expectations projected to rise New Zealand releases inflation expectations for the first quarter on Friday. Inflation expectations can manifest into actual inflation and are considered a…