by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 08:10:00 AM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is unchanged at 2.6% q/q saar. [Oct 11th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.8%. [Oct 8th…
by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 07:42:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI. • At 10:00 AM, University of…
by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 04:11:00 PM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 01:24:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices to Income A brief excerpt: One of the metrics we’d like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately, most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which…
by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 09:20:00 AM Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 4.4% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY…
by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 08:56:00 AM With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2025. From Social Security: Social Security Announces 2.5 Percent Benefit Increase for 2025 Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for more than…
by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 08:41:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 225,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since August 5, 2023 when it was 258,000. The…
by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2024 07:43:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 228 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price…
by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2024 03:35:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Year-to-date total carloads in 2024 through September were down 3.3% (285,871 carloads) from last year and down 3.0% from the first nine months of 2022. So far in 2024, total carloads fell…
by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2024 11:23:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This…