by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 03:41:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is up three-tenths to 2.6% q/q saar. [Oct 4th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our domestic final sales estimate unchanged at +2.8%. [Oct 3rd…
by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 12:37:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September…
by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 09:16:00 AM The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is…
by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and…
by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2024 07:33:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, 8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 145,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2024 03:27:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for September. The consensus is for 145,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 142,000 jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. From BofA:…
by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2024 02:42:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Performance Steadied, Office Stress Continued to Manifest, Retail Vacancy Declined, And Industrial Cooled Down National multifamily vacancy stayed flat at 5.8%, the highest level on record…
by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2024 07:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 thousand initial claims, up from 218 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index…
by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2024 02:03:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the September 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 477 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May…