by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2025 02:59:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2025 12:06:00 PM From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 11th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate…
by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2025 09:02:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are…
by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2025 07:50:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI. • At 10:00 AM, University of…
by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2025 03:47:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 April. … 30 March through 5 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 63.8% (-0.6%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.18 (+1.4%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$102.21 (+0.8%)emphasis added…
by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2025 12:45:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. In Part 2,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2025 11:20:00 AM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2025 08:54:00 AM Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 3.3% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph…
by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2025 08:36:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent…
by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending April 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised average of 223,000. emphasis added…