by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2025 08:56:00 AM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail, where global trade accounts for approximately 38% of unit volume…
by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2025 07:19:00 PM I am going on “recession watch” for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I’ve been writing this blog. In December 2022 I went on “recession watch”, but I noted “My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.” And…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Moody’s: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year…
by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2025 08:11:00 AM The key economic report this week is March CPI. —– Monday, April 7th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, April 8th —– 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. —– Wednesday, April 9th —– 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 07:56:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 02:36:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. … Apartment List:…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 01:12:00 PM From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 4th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 11:25:00 AM From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 09:14:00 AM The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased…