by Calculated Risk on 2/17/2025 02:08:00 PM I usually celebrate President Washington’s birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt: To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they must inevitably experience the infractions and…
by Calculated Risk on 2/17/2025 10:47:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National…
by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2025 06:31:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. … 2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 55.9% (-0.5%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.03 (-2.2%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$87.22 (-2.7%)emphasis added The following graph…
by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2025 09:09:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February…
by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. For manufacturing, the February New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, February 17th —– All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington’s Birthday. —– Tuesday, February 18th —–…
by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 07:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 01:52:00 PM From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker … [Feb 14th]emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales forecast by 0.1pp…
by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 10:49:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in…
by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the earlier resolution of a work…