by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 08:30:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…
by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2025 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a no change in retail sales. • At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity…
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. In Part 2, I will look at house…
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low A brief excerpt: The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during…
by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending February 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,000,…
by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 08:15:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price…
by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 12:34:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about the nominal interest rate. However, the theoretical “neutral” interest…
by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase…
by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 02:13:00 PM The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. From Goldman…
by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 09:32:00 AM This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3. Report here. An excerpt: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The…