by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 02:41:00 PM With unemployment increasing, but not quite recessionary, I’m reminded of a post I wrote in May 2011: Employment: A dirty little secret [I]t really isn’t much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is “dirty”…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 10:43:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August A brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory. August sales will be mostly for…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. Inventory is now up 37.8% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 20.5% from the seasonal low by…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2025 09:29:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of September 14, 2025 • FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 4.0, down from 11.9. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2025 09:01:00 AM Most analysts expect the FOMC the reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week, to a target range of 4 to 4 1/4 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also cut rates an additional 25bps at both the October and December…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 • The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q2 • 1st Look at Local Housing…
by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are August Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. —– Monday, September 15th —– 8:30…
by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2025 03:05:00 PM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 September The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 September. ……
by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2025 12:00:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 A brief excerpt: On Wednesday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted…
by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2025 11:01:00 AM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking is up a tenth to 1.7% q/q saar and 2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 3.2%. Here are the details to our tracking changes. [September 12th comment]emphasis added From Goldman: Our Q3 GDP forecast stands at +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter…