by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2025 08:11:00 AM The key economic report this week is the August Consumer Price Index (CPI). The BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision on Tuesday. —– Monday, September 8th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, September 9th —– 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August….
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 03:58:00 PM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 30 August The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 30 August….
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 03:11:00 PM From BofA: [O]ur 3Q GDP tracking has moved up a tenth to 1.6%. Also, our 2Q GDP tracking is down a tenth to 3.2% from the second estiamte of 2Q GDP by the BEA. [September 5th comment]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 12:05:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: What will happen with House Prices? Brief excerpt: Almost every day a journalist or an analyst asks me what will happen with house prices. Every cycle is different, and usually I focus on inventory, sales, and months-of-supply to answer this question. However,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 09:11:00 AM The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations and June and July payrolls were revised down by 21,000 combined. A weak report. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was increased to 4.3%. Prime (25 to 54 Years…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was…
by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 08:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for 78,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.3%. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 03:37:00 PM From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: July 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Slower tourism trends of recent months continued in July as the destination saw a ‐12% YoY decline in visitation, hosting approximately 3.1M visitors. The convention segment saw a YoY increase of 10.7% for the month, reflecting…
by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 02:55:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the August 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.” Click on graph for larger image. Heavy…
by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 12:09:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. More recently, immigration…