by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 08:13:00 AM A year ago I wrote: The Art of the Soft Landing A few excerpts and an updated graph … The “Art of the Soft Landing” requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. My view is…
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day Source link
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 03:26:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI May 2025: Despite persistent softness, fewer firms report declining billings The modest uptick in the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score to 47.2 for the month means that fewer…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 02:08:00 PM Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. The projections are pretty bearish. The BEA’s advance estimate for Q1 GDP showed real growth at -0.2% annualized. There is a wide range of estimates for…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 02:00:00 PM Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 09:11:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in May were below expectations; however, starts in March and April were revised up, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 08:32:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,392,000 and is 4.6 percent below the May 2024 rate of 1,316,000. Single-family housing starts…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 07:56:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 12:18:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts A brief excerpt: This morning, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their monthly housing market index: Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012…There are several negatives for new home builders…