by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) fell 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in April. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1 percent in May, driven by a gain of 4.9 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the index for…
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2025 07:11:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Drift Slightly Higher to Start The Week While there’s been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn’t been much by way of inspiration for the bond market. Bonds (and, thus, rates)…
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2025 10:49:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release May existing home sales on Monday, June 23rd at 10:00 AM. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales at a…
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 32.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 18% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup…
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2025 06:24:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, up from -9.2. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 17 and DOW…
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2025 09:31:00 AM Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the July meeting, with the next rate cut in September, and…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 • The “Home ATM”…
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are May Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged. —– Monday, June 16th —–…
by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 02:33:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million in May, up 0.75% from April’s preliminary…