by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2025 07:36:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2025 02:39:00 PM From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Seasonal and Calendar Factors Drive Rise in November Delinquencies Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) … today released the November 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. “While the topline delinquency numbers show a sharp increase, we’ve…
by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2025 11:14:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is…
by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization This release includes preliminary estimates for industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization for both October and November as well as revised estimates for May through September. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On…
by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau…
by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2025 07:11:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday’s levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower…
by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2025 11:00:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026? Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home…
by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for…
by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2025 06:56:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 21, 2025 • Ten Economic Questions for 2026 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 21 and DOW…
1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2% Q4-over-Q4 in 2025. The FOMC is expecting growth of 2.1% to 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 in 2026. How much will the economy grow in 2026? Will there be a recession in 2026? 2) Employment: Through November 2025, the economy added 610 thousand jobs in 2025. How…