by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2025 08:16:00 AM The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through April 2025. Note: This is an update to a post from several years ago. Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year This is usually…
by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, April Industrial Production, and the May NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, May 12th —– 2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April….
by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 07:10:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 02:27:00 PM Plenty of data next week! Note that the Blue Chip consensus is wide – and currently around 1%. From the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on May 8, up from…
by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 11:00:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Right now, the key story for existing homes is that inventory is…
by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 08:12:00 AM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent shifts in U.S. policies on trade and immigration have introduced volatility in financial markets and heightened uncertainty for firms. The ultimate outcomes and impacts of these policy changes remain unclear. Nevertheless,…
by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2025 07:25:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K.…In the bigger picture, today’s mortgage rate increase…
by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2025 01:39:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2025 10:41:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. … 27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 65.8% (+1.8%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.33 (+2.2%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.06 (+4.1%) Performance…