by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2025 02:14:00 PM Early in February, I expressed my “increasing concern” about the negative economic impact of “executive / fiscal policy errors”, however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I’m still not yet predicting a…
by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2025 11:56:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the…
by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2025 06:13:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM Services Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down…
by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2025 09:22:00 AM Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the June meeting, with the next rate cut in July, and…
by Calculated Risk on 5/03/2025 07:04:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 April. … 20-26 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 65.1% (-1.0%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.98 (+4.2%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.40 (+3.2%)emphasis added The following graph…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February • Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March • Inflation Adjusted House…
by Calculated Risk on 5/03/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. The FOMC meets this week and no change to the Fed funds rate is expected. —– Monday, May 5th —– 10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of…
by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 07:56:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
From BofA (forecast, not tracking): GDP contracted by 0.3% q.q saar in 1Q, despite solid final demand (+2.3%). In our assessment, the surge in imports (which took 5.0pp off 1Q growth) due to front-running of tariffs was only partially reflected in stronger inventories and final demand. So we have revised our 2Q GDP forecast to…
by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 01:35:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 505 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May…