by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 02:07:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*) A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Executive Summary: Policymakers and financial analysts looking for “models” as a guide for assessing the neutral interest rate are faced with a dilemma: various…
by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 11:57:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory. November sales will be mostly for…
by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2025 07:43:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start Week Near 3 Month Highs Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are based on bond prices). To put the 3-month…
by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2025 02:46:00 PM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Decreases 1% in November The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 1.1% in November to 276.8 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised October reading of 280.0. Over the month, commercial planning ticked down 0.1% and institutional planning declined…
by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2025 10:30:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices “Firmed” in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Inventory Impacts Prices • About one-third of markets are seeing annual home price declines, while two-thirds are posting gains • The Northeast and Midwest dominate growth, with 24…
by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2025 06:20:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 7, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.11 per barrel and Brent…
by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2025 11:50:00 AM Most analysts expect the FOMC to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week to a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. Market participants currently expect two additional rate cuts in 2026. Analysis suggests rates are currently slightly restrictive (Cleveland Fed) or…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak • Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO • Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales • Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year This is usually published…
Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. The employment report for November will NOT be released this week.This will be a light week for economic data. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates by 25bp. —– Monday, December 8th —– No major economic releases…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 04:20:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Continued Economic Uncertainty Reflected in Rail Volumes…In November 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were up 1.5% over November 2024, and 9 of the 20 major rail carload categories posted year-over-year gains. ……