by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2025 01:48:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 367 thousand. Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.” Click on graph for larger image. Heavy…
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 4.4% “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among…
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 07:44:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls…
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 11:34:00 AM It was almost thirteen years ago when I wrote “The Future’s so Bright …” I noted that I was the most optimistic since the ’90s, and that things would only get better. I pointed out that housing starts would increase significantly over the next several years, that state…
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2025 08:26:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is…
by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2025 07:10:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Erase Last Week’s Gains The prevailing trend saw rates hold a narrow, sideways range with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate in the 6.3s. Last week saw that average drop to 6.20% and now today, we’re right back…
by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2025 11:45:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA),…
by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line…
by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2025 06:12:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 30, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for 48.6%, down from 48.7%. • At 10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October. • At 8:00 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Brief Remarks and Panel Discussion…
by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2025 08:18:00 AM Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract…