by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2025 09:54:00 AM Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is at 4.4% The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2025 04:25:00 PM From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Increased Refinance Activity Drives Mortgage Prepayments to 3.5-Year High Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) … oday released the October 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. “Softening mortgage rates expanded the pool of refinance candidates in…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2025 02:00:00 PM Beige Book – November 2025 Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, according to most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, though two Districts noted a modest decline and one reported modest growth. Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient. Some retailers…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2025 10:31:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 220,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,750,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2025 08:13:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. • Also…
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2025 03:21:00 PM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.3 percent from September 2024. From the Census Bureau report: dvance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2025 01:02:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026 A brief excerpt: After the release of the FHFA house price index for September this morning, the FHFA released the conforming loan limits for 2026. From the FHFA:…
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2025 10:36:00 AM From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 1.9% Increase in October Pending home sales in October increased by 1.9% from the prior month and fell 0.4% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. … Month-Over-Month1.9% increase in pending home…
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2025 09:58:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September (”September” is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices). July closing prices include some contracts signed in…