by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 11:56:00 AM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 14th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate] And…
by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 08:18:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month…
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for November). Source link
by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 02:42:00 PM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 15 November The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest…
by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 11:02:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October Excerpt: The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025. Sales were up 1.7% year-over-year compared to October 2024. The last 2 months of 2025 will have…
by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October Month-over-month • 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in October • 0.7% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.52 million units equal to 4.4 months’ supply Year-over-year • 1.7% increase…
by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:55:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s average.emphasis added The following graph shows…
by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 09:06:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 223K initial claims. • Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 43,000…
by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 05:05:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From the AIA: ABI October 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The ABI score of 47.6 for October indicates that fewer firms reported declining billings this month than…