by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July. Employment continued to trend up in health…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 08:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for July. The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%. • At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 05:00:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%. There were 147,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%. Important: As I noted…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 02:42:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 July. … 20-26 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 71.5% (-0.7%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.88 (-0.1%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$117.88 (-0.8%)emphasis added The following graph…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 11:58:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.20% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year (YoY)…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 09:01:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 08:37:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 230 thousand from 221 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Personal…
by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 03:36:00 PM From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: June 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Reflecting the broader backdrop of persistent economic uncertainty and weaker consumer confidence, compounded by a slower convention month, the destination saw a ‐11% YoY decline in visitation, hosting approximately 3.1M visitors. Convention attendance was approx. 375k…
by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 11:13:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! In the May Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was…
by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2025 08:09:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls…