by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2025 01:41:00 PM Last month, I noted: State and local government education hiring was reported at 63.5 thousand in June (seasonally adjusted). On a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, 542.4 thousand education jobs lost. This happens every June. However, this year fewer jobs were lost than expected resulting in the large…
by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2025 10:00:00 AM From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively….
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 09:09:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Flat to Start New Week If any given week of movement in the mortgage rate world came with disclaimer, this one would be: “Warning. An absence of volatility on Monday has no bearing on odds for volatility…
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 05:09:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.55%, unchanged from 0.55% May. Freddie’s rate is up year-over-year from 0.50% in June 2024, however,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 01:09:00 PM The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2025 today. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and…
by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2025 07:46:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 20, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the Q2 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 28…
by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2025 09:01:00 AM Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to cut the Fed Funds rate 25bp in September, with a second rate cut in December. From…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY • New Home Sales Increase to 627,000 Annual Rate in June • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales…
by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the July employment report. Other key reports include May Case-Shiller house prices, July ISM manufacturing index and July vehicle sales. The FOMC meets this week and no change to the Fed Funds rate is expected. —–…
by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 05:01:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …