by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2025 11:26:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025? A brief excerpt: Most forecasts for 2025 were for U.S. house prices to increase modestly in the 3% to 4% range. My early view was “mostly flat prices nationally in 2025” with some…
by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2025 06:13:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 13, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 26 and DOW futures are down 185 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $68.45 per…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June • July ICE Mortgage Monitor:…
by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are June CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, July 14th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, July 15th —–…
by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 03:55:00 PM From Nick Villa at Moody’s The Office Sector’s Double Whammy The ongoing challenges affecting the office sector have not only resulted in deteriorating space market fundamentals—evidenced by the record-high national office vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2025—but have also had a direct negative impact on capital…
by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 02:48:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 11:40:00 AM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [July 11th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e have lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.7%. [July…
by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 08:26:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June A brief excerpt: Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, averaged 6.73% in April and 6.82% in…
by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 04:47:00 PM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands 7% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 6.8% in June to 225.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised May reading of 210.9. Over the month, commercial planning grew 7.3% while institutional planning improved 5.7%….
by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 02:19:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 July. … 29 June through 5 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 61.1% (-0.4%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.71 (-0.9%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$95.80 (-1.3%)emphasis added…