by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2025 06:36:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI June 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft, while inquiries increase The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index score was 46.8 for the month, indicating that the majority of architecture firms are…
by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2025 03:01:00 PM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for June 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased in seven states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of…
by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2025 10:53:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY Excerpt: Sales in June (3.93 million SAAR) were down 2.7% from the previous month and were unchanged compared to the June 2024 sales rate. This was the 5th consecutive…
by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2025 07:28:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR)….
by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2025 03:11:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term…
by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2025 11:33:00 AM There are four remaining FOMC meetings this year: July, September, October and December. It is very unlikely that the FOMC will cut rates next week, but there are very different views on the rest of 2025. First, from BofA: With the u-rate rising more gradually in our new…
by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 07:44:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates didn’t move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday. That makes…
by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 01:57:00 PM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2 Excerpt: From the NMHC: Borrowing Conditions Continue to Improve While Most Respondents Report an Unchanged Market The Market Tightness Index (54), Sales Volume Index (55) and Debt Financing Index (69) all came in…
by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 37.2% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 21% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal increase in inventory. The…
by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2025 06:21:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 20, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 2 and DOW futures are down 33 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $67.34 per…