by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 33, up from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Up in July Builder confidence for…
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 08:35:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from June 2024. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…
by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2025 07:02:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 235 thousand from 233 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Retail…
by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2025 02:34:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June A brief excerpt: This is the third look at local markets in June. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some…
by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2025 02:00:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity. That represented an improvement over the previous report, in which half of Districts reported…
by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2025 07:14:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2025 04:06:00 PM The BLS reported earlier today: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.6 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 315.945 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index…
by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2025 11:14:00 AM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2025 07:43:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Just a Hair Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Report Today’s movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday’s levels but is technically just a hair higher. That…
by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2025 02:31:00 PM The Consumer Price Index for May is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.6% year-over-year and…