by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2025 08:21:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June • Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025? This is…
by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are June New and Existing Home Sales. For manufacturing, the July Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, July 21st —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, July 22nd —– 8:30 AM: Speech Fed Chair Jerome Powell,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 02:44:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar. [July 18th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: June single-family housing starts were weaker than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 12:10:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.92 million in June, down 2.7% from May’s preliminary…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 09:11:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in June were above expectations (due to volatile multi-family sector) and starts in April and May were revised up. The third graph shows the…
by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,321,000. This is 4.6 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,263,000, but is 0.5 percent below the June 2024 rate of 1,327,000. Single-family housing starts…
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 07:57:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.300 million SAAR, up from 1.256 million SAAR in May. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for July)….
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 03:16:00 PM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the…
by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 01:11:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 12 July. … 6-12 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 67.2% (-3.2%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$158.42 (-0.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$106.39 (-3.7%) emphasis added The following…